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Bill Miller Value Investor Letter – Jan 2021
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Miller Value Funds: Home
Celebrating 20 Years of Growth. Bill Miller’s Latest Market Letter.
Source: millervaluefunds.com
Date Published: 4/23/2022
View: 4572
Here’s what legendary investor Bill Miller said in his final …
Miller has spent the last 40 years writing investment letters, first alternating every quarter with his late partner, Ernie Kiehne, and then for …
Source: www.marketwatch.com
Date Published: 8/23/2021
View: 7684
bill miller | The Acquirer’s Multiple®
In his latest Q2 2021 Market Letter, Bill Miller highlights how absurd it is to try and forecast the future of markets, and includes recent forecasts by …
Source: acquirersmultiple.com
Date Published: 2/28/2021
View: 4693
Bill Miller Q3 2021 Market Letter – Seeking Alpha
In the post-war period, the US stock market has gone up in around 70% of the years because the US economy grows most of the time.
Source: seekingalpha.com
Date Published: 3/2/2022
View: 9576
Miller Value Partners (@MillerValue) / Twitter
In his 3Q market letter, Bill Miller looks at The Fed’s past and present actions to understand the dynamic between the stock and bond market.
Source: twitter.com
Date Published: 5/28/2021
View: 7964
legg mason – Cannon Financial Institute
And then there’s Bill Miller III, portfolio manager of Legg Mason … myriad of letters and numbers that captivated his father’s interest. The en-.
Source: www.cannonfinancial.com
Date Published: 7/8/2021
View: 1653
Bill Miller 3Q 2021 Market Letter – Marcellus
“since no one has privileged access to the future, forecasting the market is a waste of time. It is more useful to try and understand what is …
Source: marcellus.in
Date Published: 1/29/2021
View: 3078
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- Author: Home in the Ozarks
- Views: 조회수 133회
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- Date Published: 2021. 1. 7.
- Video Url link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRYDLX-aTUc
Miller Value Funds
Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. An issuer may perform poorly, and therefore, the value of its securities may decline, which would negatively affect the Funds. Derivatives involve special risks including correlation, counterparty, liquidity, operational, accounting and tax risks. These risks, in certain cases, may be greater than the risks presented by more traditional investments. The Miller Opportunity Trust Fund may also use options, which have the risks of unlimited losses of the underlying holdings due to unanticipated market movements and failure to correctly predict the direction of securities prices, interest rates and currency exchange rates. The investment in options is not suitable for all investors. The Funds may use leverage which may exaggerate the effect of any increase or decrease in the value of portfolio securities or the Net Asset Value of the Funds, and money borrowed will be subject to interest costs. Investments in debt securities typically decrease in value when interest rates rise. The Funds are non-diversified, meaning it may concentrate its assets in fewer individual holdings than a diversified fund. Therefore, the Funds are more exposed to individual stock volatility than a diversified fund. This risk is usually greater for longer-term debt securities. The value approach to investing involves the risk that stocks may remain undervalued. Value stocks may underperform the overall equity market while the market concentrates on growth stocks. The Funds may invest in Illiquid securities which involve the risk that the securities will not be able to be sold at the time or prices desired by the Funds, particularly during times of market turmoil. The Funds invests in foreign securities which involve greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small- and Medium-capitalization companies tend to have limited liquidity and greater price volatility than large-capitalization companies. Investing in commodities may subject the Funds to greater risks and volatility as commodity prices may be influenced by a variety of factors including unfavorable weather, environmental factors, and changes in government regulations. Investments in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) involve additional risks such as declines in the value of real estate and increased susceptibility to adverse economic or regulatory developments. The Funds may make short sales of securities, which involves the risk that losses may exceed the original amount invested. Investing in ETFs are subject to additional risks that do not apply to conventional mutual funds, including the risks that the market price of the shares may trade at a discount to its net asset value (“NAV”), an active secondary trading market may not develop or be maintained, or trading may be halted by the exchange in which they trade, which may impact a Funds ability to sell its shares. Investment by the Miller Income Fund in lower-rated and non-rated securities presents a greater risk of loss to principal and interest than higher-rated securities. Investments by the Miller Income Fund in asset backed and mortgage backed securities include additional risks that investors should be aware of such as credit risk, prepayment risk, possible illiquidity and default, as well as increased susceptibility to adverse economic developments. The Miller Income Fund may invest in MLPs which are subject to certain risks inherent in the structure of MLPs, including complex tax structure risks, the limited ability for election or removal of management, limited voting rights, potential dependence on parent companies or sponsors for revenues to satisfy obligations, and potential conflicts of interest between partners, members and affiliates.
The Miller Value Funds are distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC
Here’s what legendary investor Bill Miller said in his final investment letter
There have been few investors as astute as Bill Miller, the fund manager who famously beat the S&P 500 for 15 years in a row, through to 2005. The value-focused investor’s correct calls over the years have ranged from Amazon to bitcoin.
Miller has spent the last 40 years writing investment letters, first alternating every quarter with his late partner, Ernie Kiehne, and then for the last 30 years, writing one himself each period. Miller, chairman and chief investment officer at his own firm Miller Value Partners, now says those duties will go to his son, Bill Miller IV, and Samantha McLemore. Not that he’s taking a vow of silence. “If I think there is something interesting or useful to say about the market that others are not saying, I will sit down at the keyboard again,” he writes.
Miller’s final quarterly missive is, predictably, consistent. “Over the past decade or so my letters have been focused mostly on saying the same thing: we are in a bull market that began in March of 2009 and continues, accompanied by the typical and inevitable pullbacks and corrections. Its end will come either when stocks get too expensive relative to bonds or when earnings decline, neither of which is the case now,” he says.
Market timing is foolish — the stock market has gone up in 70% of postwar years because the U.S. economy grows most of the time. “Most of the returns in stocks are concentrated in sharp bursts beginning in periods of great pessimism or fear, as we saw most recently in the 2020 pandemic decline. We believe time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market,” says Miller.
He identifies the current worries, from China’s regulatory proclivity to inflation to supply-chain disruptions. “These are legitimate concerns and seem adequately reflected in the market, particularly so when stocks corrected in September. One thing I am pretty confident of is that 12 months from now those worries will have been replaced by a new set of worries,” he writes.
But, he says, stocks are entering their strongest seasonal period. “As in most markets, there are areas of overvaluation and of undervaluation, with the bulk of shares appearing to hover in the area of fair value relative to their prospects,” he says.
Miller didn’t discuss individual stocks. The top holding in the Opportunity Trust LMNOX that he manages with McLemore is Amazon AMZN, followed by technology consultant DXC Technology DXC, Alphabet GOOGL, software company Splunk SPLK and Facebook.
The buzz
Netflix NFLX will be in the spotlight after the streaming giant added 4.4 million new paid subscribers in the third quarter, but warned fourth-quarter earnings would be below analyst estimates on the hefty cost of programming.
Wednesday’s earnings wave includes Verizon Communications VZ, and after the close, International Business Machines IBM and Tesla TSLA.
Facebook FB will change the name of the company next week, The Verge reported, to align its brand name more toward the “metaverse” that CEO Mark Zuckerberg envisions.
There’s a huge day of Fedspeak with five scheduled speeches during the trading day, as well as the release of the Beige Book of economic anecdotes at 2 p.m. Eastern. Chair Jerome Powell will have the last word on Friday before the central bank goes quiet ahead of its next Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Sens. Joe Manchin and Bernie Sanders are seeking to reach a deal on spending by the end of the week, The Hill reported, citing an unnamed Democratic senator.
Novavax NVAX fell in premarket trade on a report from Politico it faces significant hurdles in proving it can manufacture a COVID-19 shot that meets regulators’ quality standards.
Listen to the Best New Ideas In Money podcast
The market
After the fifth straight gain for the S&P 500 SPX, U.S. stock futures ES00 NQ00 were steady as the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y reached 1.64%.
Bitcoin BTCUSD was trading north of $64,000 on the second day of a U.S. exchange-traded fund tracking cryptocurrency futures.
Random reads
JPMorgan Chase JPM CEO Jamie Dimon told the firm’s wealth advisers they were getting a raise — from Windsor Castle.
Georgia is facing an invasion of enormous spiders from Asia.
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The Acquirer’s Multiple®
In his latest 2022 Market Perspective, Bill Miller says the rotation to value has begun. Here’s an excerpt from the perspective: Where does all that leave us? Even after last week’s move, stock prices remain down year-to-date, and I believe there are many good values in the market. I also … Read More
Bill Miller 3Q 2021 Market Letter
miniseries/E+ via Getty Images
In a few weeks, it will be 40 years since I entered the investment business. Every one of those years has involved me spending some number of hours on a weekend drafting a market letter. For the first 10 years, I alternated quarterly letters with my late partner Ernie Kiehne; the past 30 years, I have done one every quarter. Having passed my biblically allotted three score and 10 years, it seems reasonable to free up those hours to pursue more productive pursuits such as walking the dog or taking a nap. Accordingly, I will leave future ruminations on the market to Samantha McLemore and Bill Miller IV to make as they see fit.
Over the past decade or so, my letters have been focused mostly on saying the same thing: we are in a bull market that began in March of 2009 and continues, accompanied by the typical and inevitable pullbacks and corrections. Its end will come either when stocks get too expensive relative to bonds or when earnings decline, neither of which is the case now. There have been a few other themes: since no one has privileged access to the future, forecasting the market is a waste of time. It is more useful to try and understand what is happening now and give up trying to predict what is going to happen. In the post-war period, the US stock market has gone up in around 70% of the years because the US economy grows most of the time. Odds much less favorable than that have made casino owners very rich, yet most investors try to guess the 30% of the time stocks decline, or even worse spend time trying to surf, to no avail, the quarterly up and down waves in the market. Most of the returns in stocks are concentrated in sharp bursts beginning in periods of great pessimism or fear, as we saw most recently in the 2020 pandemic decline. We believe time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market.
When I am asked what I worry about in the market, the answer usually is “nothing”, because everyone else in the market seems to spend an inordinate amount of time worrying, and so all of the relevant worries seem to be covered. My worries won’t have any impact except to detract from something much more useful, which is trying to make good long-term investment decisions.
Today’s worries include, but are not limited to, China’s regulatory actions, high and rising fuel and food prices, labor shortages, inflation or stagflation, the effect of Federal Reserve tapering, disrupted supply chains, potential default due to the debt limit standoff and the ongoing dis-function and polarization in Washington. These are legitimate concerns and seem adequately reflected in the market, particularly so when stocks corrected in September. One thing I am pretty confident of is that twelve months from now those worries will have been replaced by a new set of worries.
In the meantime, stocks are entering their strongest seasonal period. The major US indices are all up double digits, so the bull market continues. As in most markets, there are areas of over-valuation and of under-valuation, with the bulk of shares appearing to hover in the area of fair value relative to their prospects. We, of course, continue to focus on securities where the opportunities for long-term excess returns appear greatest.
My taking leave of writing a quarterly market commentary does not indicate a desire to enter into an Ezra Pound end-of-life silence, although that does have some appeal. If I think there is something interesting or useful to say about the market that others are not saying, I will sit down at the keyboard again.
Original Post
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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